If you’ve been catching up on the news, you might have come across discussions about inflation and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024. Let’s simplify what these terms mean for you, especially if you’re thinking about buying a home.
Surprising Inflation and Possible Rate Cuts
Even though inflation turned out higher than expected, there’s talk about the Fed lowering interest rates in 2024. The 10-year yield, a measure of interest rates, had a small reaction and is now at 3.98%, down from 5.04% last year. Despite this, jobless claims are still quite low, adding an interesting twist to the economic scene.
How the Fed Affects Rates
Think of it this way: when the market believes the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, both mortgage rates and the 10-year yield drop. This trend has happened before, like the recent fall from 5% to 3.80%, and it’s connected to the current talk of possible rate cuts.
Getting Closer to the Numbers
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% in December, with a 3.4% rise over the past 12 months. While this may sound like jargon, it’s just a way to measure how prices are changing. The Fed usually focuses on core inflation, and recent improvements in this core inflation data are worth noting.
Why the Fed Might Cut Rates
Here’s the main idea: the Fed might lower rates in 2024 because they raised them too much in 2023. Even though today’s inflation is higher than expected, there’s still room for rate cuts because the Fed Funds rate (another interest rate) is higher than how fast prices are actually going up.
What It Means for You as a Homebuyer
If the Fed wants to keep the economy on a smooth path, cutting rates in 2024 could be part of the plan. This could involve reducing interest rates multiple times throughout the year. Despite inflation surprises, the market seems unbothered, suggesting a unique recovery from the recent global pandemic.
In short, while inflation might seem complicated, the last two years were quite unusual due to the pandemic. As you consider buying a home, keeping an eye on housing policies and existing home sales will be key in navigating these financial changes.