Matthew Gardner’s Projections for 2024

As we step into 2024, Matthew Gardner, a seasoned expert in real estate trends, provides insightful predictions that shed light on the anticipated dynamics of the housing market. Let’s take a look at his top 10 projections for the year ahead:

1. No Bursting Bubbles: Matthew maintains his stance from the previous year – there’s no looming housing bubble. Despite the market performing even better than expected in 2023, with continued price growth and higher mortgage rates, he dismisses the idea of an imminent market implosion in 2024.

2. Mortgage Rates: A Gradual Descent: The resilience of the U.S. economy has led to the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to keeping mortgage rates higher for a longer duration to combat inflation. However, Gardner predicts a gradual easing of mortgage rates in 2024, albeit not swiftly. He anticipates rates to hover around 6% by the year’s end.

3. Modest Rise in Listings: While Gardner foresees a modest increase in listing activity, he notes that many homeowners might be hesitant to sell and risk losing their current mortgage rates. However, as rates approach within 1.5% of their existing rate, some may find motivation to make a move.

4. Incremental Rise in Home Prices: Contrary to some forecasts, Gardner doesn’t expect home prices to fall in 2024. The lack of inventory is likely to support home values, with a very modest growth of around 1%, the slowest pace in years.

5. Recovery in Crashed Markets: Previously hit markets during the pandemic are expected to recover in 2024, with home prices either matching or exceeding their 2022 highs in the majority of metro areas across the country.

6. New Construction Market Share Growth: Despite new construction remaining restrained, builders are gaining a larger share of listings due to limited supply in the resale market. However, this comes with a trade-off, as builders are offering lower list prices and increased incentives.

7. Worsening Housing Affordability: With the ongoing rise in home prices and borrowing costs outpacing income growth, Gardner predicts a further erosion of housing affordability in 2024. First-time homebuyers are expected to be the most impacted by this affordability challenge.

8. Urgent Need for Government Action: Gardner emphasizes the need for governments to take housing and affordability seriously. He calls for the continuation of policies aimed at releasing developable land, streamlining the permitting process, and reducing fees to address affordability concerns.

9. Foreclosure Impact: Minimal for Now: Contrary to expectations, the end of forbearance didn’t lead to a flood of homes on the market. While foreclosure starts have picked up, they remain below pre-pandemic levels. Gardner anticipates an increase in delinquency levels in 2024, returning to the long-term average but not posing a significant concern.

10. Sales Upsurge, Yet Lowest in 15 Years: While Gardner predicts a modest improvement in the number of homes for sale and a decrease in mortgage rates, he estimates around 4.4 million home sales in 2024. However, demand surpassing supply means sellers will likely maintain the upper hand.

Matthew Gardner’s foresight into the real estate landscape for 2024 provides a comprehensive guide for navigating the complexities of the housing market in the upcoming year. It’s a roadmap that acknowledges challenges but also highlights opportunities for those looking to make strategic moves in the real estate arena. Stay tuned for an eventful year ahead in the world of real estate!

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